Bills vs Patriots odds
The 3-seeded Bills are set to face the 6-seeded Patriots in the 2022 NFL Playoff Wild Card weekend. Find our expert’s projected odds below and a recap of each team’s seasons.
Bills vs Patriots schedule
Projections of bills against the patriots
Our director of predictive analytics, Sean Koerner, reveals his initial projections for spread and over / under based on his model.
These are subject to change before kickoff, so be sure to check out our NFL PRO Screenings – that is to say, consensus projections in real time based on models of six experts (including Sean).
- Propagated: Invoices -5.5
- Total: 44.5 *
* This projection depends on the weather in Buffalo
Bills vs Patriots predictions
We will add our expert’s initial betting tips for this game as soon as possible, but no later than 5 p.m. ET on Monday, so be sure to check back then.
How Bills Reached the NFL Playoffs in 2022
Avery Yang: This team could have some of the most confusing results of any NFL team, with losses to the Jaguars and Steelers to accompany a 41-15 beating by the Colts.
They are talked about as one of the best teams in the NFL, but do they really look like that this season?
Advanced statistics have an answer, and it’s a resounding yes.
Football Outsiders’ Overall, DVOA claims the Bills are the No.3 team in the NFL. And although they have suffered a few losses against bad teams, they have dominated decent and good teams including the Patriots and Chiefs.
Dominant teams – not winning close games – are the best metric for deciding which teams are Super Bowl contenders and not Super Bowl contenders.
All of the Bills’ wins this season are in double digits. And in each of those wins, the Bills had complete or almost complete control of the game by the time the fourth quarter unfolded.
The market loves Buffalo, and I don’t blame them. Don’t be surprised if you see the Bills in Inglewood arriving in mid-February.
How the Patriots reached the NFL playoffs in 2022
Chase Howell: Are the Patriots officially back? For a few weeks in the middle of the season, we certainly wanted to.
They were sitting atop the AFC East and were in a good position to secure the 1 seed after their Week 14 victory over the Bills. They lost their next two games after that, allowing Buffalo to pass them and settle for a wildcard spot for the AFC.
That doesn’t rule out what they’ve been up to this season, or the fact that the defense is certainly good enough to carry this team into the playoffs. They rank second in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ total DVOA on defense and have relied on this unit throughout the season.
The offense leaves something to be desired, but they still rank 10th overall in DVOA on offense. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones has been a reliable game manager, but he’s far from a finished product and he doesn’t have good receiver-level weapons just yet. The Pats built on their committee running back approach and developed a solid running game, placing eighth in the NFL in yards per game.
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